Tuesday, May 26, 2015

7% Interest Rate; The Pitfalls

Pakistan has witnessed a historic fall in interest rate to 7 percent in 42 years. Such a low level of interest rate has very significant bearings on overall economic growth. This change in rate has both positive as well as negative points as well. Let’s analyze,

Positive Effects;
A. Interest rate and Investment Relationship
a.       Lower level of interest rate boosts Investment.
b.       Increase in investments increases the available stock of capital implying into higher levels of output.  
c.       Higher level of output means higher returns to employed factors of production.
d.      Higher factor’s income means higher consumption and saving of individuals.
e.      Higher consumptions and savings make the quality of life better.  
B. Interest rate and Saving Relationship
a.       Savings are leakages from the circular flow of national income.
b.      Lower level of interest rate decreases level of saving.
c.       Lower interest rate means lower returns on savings maintained on banks.  
d.      Lower returns discourage individuals to save (take bonds, maintain saving deports etc.) but entice to invest or consume money.
e.      Impetus to consumptions and investments translate into greater demands for consumption goods and capital/investment goods respectively.
f.        Aforesaid higher demand means impetus to industry to produce more i.e. boosting economic activity, increasing returns in factor’s income, smoothed consumption, better quality of life.
C.       Ease in Acquiring Loans from Financing Institutes
a.       Lower interest rate means higher demand for loans as cost of loan (amount of money other than principle amount) decreases.
b.      Greater access/availability to loans means greater access to liquidity required for investments or consumption smoothing.
c.       Higher investments mean higher productions, upgraded production functions, higher factor incomes and better quality of life.



Pakistan's Economy and Its Peculiarities 
 

Economy of Pakistan is under slow transition, though persistent! The economy is popularly considered among those across world where politicization of  economic policies is a routine matter. Economic-cum-political elites enjoy undaunted control over policy corridors which help the said elites to bag every opportunity for personal gains. Pakistan, even then, has propelled and developed under such non-conducive environment. How? 

For answering this question, we first need to know as to how Economic-cum-political elites have dictated thing till now? Following are some major in-roads,  

1. Control over the Engine of Economic Growth
Economic growth is controlled by Investments and Savings which demonstrate their selves through favorable changes in volume of output. Investing is like injecting blood into the economy, then helping it to grow and subsequently reaping the much awaited/needed/anticipated returns. Savings should be better understood as basis for investments. Savings are difficult if one do not have the stock of wealth. So, its the wealth which is going to matter. Its the wealthier who can control the engine of growth. (Think of a poor in any slum area and speculate his control on the engine in comparison with a business tycoon).      

Are not the ruling elites wealthier? They are, beyond doubts. Are not they controlling the strains of economic engine? They are, beyond doubts. So, this is how the sitting elite (industrialists) have greater control over economic growth. Worth noting, the key positions are given in to the hands of "Puppets" or the ones with "mutual/synchronized interest". 


2. Control over Public Policy Matters
 


3. Protection of the Vote Bank 


4. Control over Media (Perception Developer)